VW Makes its Move, Optimism This Week, and a Wishlist

Automotive Software Update

So VW has cast aside its own Cariad investment in favor of Rivian.

I wrote a little while ago about the need and opportunity for legacy automakers to purchase a modern software asset.  VW is wise to have pulled the trigger.  It will save VW massive R&D costs and accelerate time to market.  VW struck when Rivian had a deep need for cash, so it was probably a great price.   

The other legacy automakers are in even more of a bind now.  The price of buying into Rivian or Tesla or someone else with a modern software stack is only going up.   GM is doubling down on their own stack – they are going to find the cost is very very high, and they don’t have the equity compensation to attract great talent.  

I have lived through a lot of “make vs buy” decisions. In my first several months at Microsoft, I was part of a team assessing whether to make an offer to purchase Iris Associates, the developer of Notes. I didn’t even know where the men’s room was yet; I was the stupidest person on the team. 

Microsoft could have purchased Notes, the leading product in the early groupware market, and acquired Ray Ozzie and his team.  But we convinced ourselves internally we could build a better solution at a lower cost. Microsoft then spent years and untold millions building out Exchange. It was definitely not cheaper, and the opportunity cost was enormous — all that effort could have been spent on other products.  And we didn’t get the Notes team; years later, Microsoft bought another Ray Ozzie company at a much higher price, just to get Ray.

Ultimately, Microsoft won the email/groupware battle, but it took a long time and cost an incredible amount.  We’d have been better off buying the leader; I was too stupid to realize that then.  

The legacy automakers are struggling with a similar decision.  These are tough decisions internally – kudos to VW for making the jump.

Reasons for Optimism this week

The election didn’t turn out as some wanted, including me. But there is no time for moping – we need to make lemonade from the lemons we’ve been given, and there are many reasons to be optimistic here in the US.

We are on the cusp of incredible advances in technology. Here is one gentleman's view on molecular nanotechnology.  I’ve been excited about molecular assembly since I read Feynman's paper years ago.  The opportunity seems endless — the evolution of chips and MEMS has given us a small taste of what could be in front of us.  

And then you have the World Economics Forum’s list of the Top 10 Emerging Technologies, each of which could be an economic bonanza. I am not even sure this is the correct top 10 list (for instance, no molecular assembly). But AI for scientific discovery alone could transform so many fields.

And here in Seattle, I continue to be excited about the local space industry, with Stoke as one of the leaders.

Not all of this inventiveness will pan out.  But some of it will, and in doing so, will create benefits that we haven’t even thought about.

A lot of the benefits of these technological breakthroughs will be flow primarily to the US. Look back at that World Economic Forum list and notice that the US or a Western ally is the leading investment market for most emerging breakthroughs.  This bodes very well for the economic future of our country — we don’t want to bring back low-value jobs to the US; we want to create new high-value jobs.

The US is already breaking away from Europe on stock market performance; this seems likely to continue.  A Trump administration is unlikely to put the brakes on this.

Short Gear Wishlist

The new iPad Mini looks excellent.  iPads are so great — they just work.  It is no wonder there is no real Android tablet market.  I recently tried to use an Android tablet (and a name-brand one, not some random cheapo one) as a home control kiosk in our house; what a constant disappointment.  Constant freezing, frequent loss of connection to cameras, and no watchdog behavior obviously in either the apps or the system.   I switched to an iPad mini, and it just kind of works without any fuss. 

Your Phone, Minus the Distractions.  I might need one of these.  Some people have suggested that I might be online a wee too much.  This would be good to try.

I have absolutely no need for a Skydio Dock, but wouldn’t it be great to have one on the roof?  I would love an autonomous drone that regularly circles my house, day and night, monitoring the property for security issues.   Or respond to a security notification by taking off and getting close-up pictures of the area of concern.  Or when the doorbell rings for any reason, monitors who is at the door.  And then also regularly examines my roof and gutters for damage, debris build-up, moss growth, etc.  And would keep an eye on my dogs when they are outside and alert me if an eagle or hawk or coyote or bobcat or owl is sighted or heard.   Or when we are having a party, would automatically capture a bunch of pictures of the scene for us. I find the actual flying of drones to be a bit of a drag.  And they are never charged up and updated when I want to fly them.  A permanent dock which keeps my drone charged and up-to-date seems like a great idea.