Trump Foreign Policy

I wanted to discuss some technology issues this week, but I’ve been so derailed, it has been very hard to be upbeat and constructive. Like so many others, I am deeply dismayed and disturbed by the treatment Zelenskyy and Ukraine received at the White House. Noah Smith says it better than I ever could: Our leadership is immoral, and the US is no longer a leader of the free world.  

The event has caused me to reflect on our foreign policy goals and I think it is simple: The US is a small part of the world, about 4.25% of the world’s population, and there are actors and nations that aspire to harm us or limit us. Our government is responsible for addressing these threats and ensuring that our citizens have their full rights to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”   And while there are always a million little foreign policy flareups, it is crucial to keep our focus on the 50-100 years ahead. We should not be distracted by small issues but should address the big problems that are hard to solve and take time to solve, with solutions that will benefit our children and our children’s children.

So these are my two fundamental tenets — focus on the long-term, and protect and expand the rights of American citizens.  When I consider these two tenets, there are then four issues that should dominate our foreign policy actions, and Russia is irrelevant to most of them:

1. We must protect and expand liberal democracy, the system of government that underlies our nation.  Some nations and movements are antagonistic to liberal democracy — particularly China, Russia, various Islamic states, North Korea.  We should limit the influence of these nations and movements and support their democratic opponents.  The betrayal of Ukraine and embrace of Russia fails in this regard.  And as Noah Smith mentions, it dramatically undercuts our leadership and moral authority on these issues.   It will take us years to recover.
2. We must promote our economic development.  The U.S. is facing a significant trade imbalance and a weakened manufacturing base due to years of unchecked globalization, which other nations have exploited to advance their economies at the expense of the U.S. This situation has economically weakened the U.S. and will have major implications for its military capabilities. New industries and technologies are now emerging in the economy, and the U.S. must diligently rebuild its economic strength.  Embracing Russia does nothing for us, they are an economic backwater.
3. We must prevent nuclear proliferation. The spread of nuclear weapons and the decline of existing arms control agreements pose significant threats to American security.  If there was anything in this Russia turn about nuclear disarmament, that might be an interesting reason to treat with Russia.  But there is nothing in the administration’s actions about nuclear arms.
4. We must navigate energy changes and climate change.  Fossil fuel cannot last forever; the world is shifting toward an electrified infrastructure, with renewables playing a big role. Climate change remains a pressing issue, leading to rising costs related to insurance, disaster response, and migration. The U.S. must manage its significant dependence on petroleum and the foreign policy shaped by that reliance, while becoming a leader in new energy sources.  A Russia embrace has nothing to offer here.

We are not better off today than we were a few days ago.   The prospects for our children are not better.  This administration is failing us all.  Russia just does not have a very significant economy, and its growth rate is well below others.  It does not represent a significant opportunity, nor is it a significant counter-balance to China as some claim.  We are going to get nothing out of a closer relationship with Russia.   They are not our enemy, they are just largely irrelevant (modulo any nuclear weapons deal).

Given how immaterial Russia is to the USA's interests, why is Trump bending over backwards to help them? It must be in his self-interest, either for his ego or pocketbook.

Finally, as many are asking, where is Congress and why are they dithering?  Both parties are accepting a historic erosion of the power and influence of Congress — do they think this plays out well for them?  Trump won the election by 1.5%; a shift in 3 states of .5% would have flipped the results; the Republicans have a 3 seat margin in the House — why are the Democrats so cowed?